• Table of Contents

2050 Energy Needs Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D7Hr3Syhtajohre2ahZTZWcrqcJDZiQOAUUs840SGfs/edit#gid=755037581

Summary Spreadsheet – 2050 Energy Needs

US Energy Information Administration

US Energy Information Administration. "EIA projects less than a quarter of the world’s electricity generated from coal by 2050." eia.gov, 22 Jan, 2020, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42555. Accessed 19 Nov. 2022.

• Global electricity generation predicted to hit 45 trillion kWh by 2050
• Coal will be 22% of the generation mix in 2050
• Renewable sources will make up almost 50% by 2050
• Global electricity generation will grow by 1.8% per year

US Energy Information Administration. “International Energy Outlook 2021.” eia.gov, 6 Oct. 2021, www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/. Accessed 19 Nov. 2022.

• Scenarios/Assumptions:

  • Reference case assumes existing laws and regulations, current trends/relationships between supply, demand, and prices
  • Incorporates assumed improvements in performance and cost of current technology based on historical data
  • Does not include anticipated legislation/policy, future technological breakthroughs, major disruptive events to the economy, or geopolitics

• Key takeaways:

  Figure 2 End-use energy consumption

  • Global energy consumption increases by 50% from 2020 levels, mostly due to the growth of non-OECD countries
  • Increases in electricity generation will largely be from renewable sources but carbon-based sources continue to make up a large portion of the generation mix
  • Oil and natural gas are the largest sources of fuel in 2050 without significant policy changes or technological innovation
  • Renewable sources will account for 27% of generation in 2050
  • Electric vehicles will account for ⅓ of vehicles on the road by 2050–this increases demand for electricity by 5%
  • In OECD countries, all post-2020 electricity generation growth will come from renewables in contrast with 90% of post-2020 growth in non-OECD countries
  • Industrial sector demand will lead to a 50% growth of natural gas production from 2020 to 2050

IPCC

Rogelj, J., D. Shindell, K. Jiang, S. Fifita, P. Forster, V. Ginzburg, C. Handa, H. Kheshgi, S. Kobayashi, E. Kriegler, L. Mundaca, R. Séférian, and M.V.Vilariño, 2018: Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.

• Assumptions/Scenarios:

  • IPCC report outlines multiple pathways to limiting warming to 1.5 degrees

    • Database of 529 scenarios from 19 modeling frameworks
    • Integrated Assessment Modelling Consortium (IAMC) called for submissions and verified that all included models were complete and plausible (see page 21 of this PDF)
    • There is a wide range of societal and economic assumptions that underlie each pathway.
      • “For example, based on alternative future fertility, mortality, migration and educational assumptions, population projections vary between 8.5 and 10.0 billion people by 2050 and between 6.9 and 12.6 billion people by 2100 across the SSPs [Shared Socio-Economic Pathways].”
    • The socio-economic pathways assumed in each model/report about energy demand/generation in 2050 could have huge impacts on what the projections are
      • IPCC also notes, “none of the GDP projections in the mitigation pathway literature assessed in this chapter included the feedback of climate damages on economic growth.”
      • Eliana’s question: Do energy projections that assume sustained economic growth through 2050 incorporate the negative economic impacts of climate change?

  • Future energy demand varies wildly based on socio-economic assumptions (see Figure 2.4)

    Figure 2.4 Range of assumptions about socio-economic drivers and projections for energy and food demand in the pathways available to this assessment

“A key finding is that 1.5°C-consistent pathways could be identified under a considerable range of assumptions in model studies despite the tightness of the 1.5°C emissions budget.” Original source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0091-3